Rosesyrup Research
Call: Short Upon Opening Target
price = $0.623
Why Accordia Golf
Trust (AGT) can't be trusted.
1.
Japanese
market for golf course has been shrinking drastically since 1991. Further
projected to suffer for the next 5 years.
2.
Although
there are some increasing interest for golf in the niche markets (Women,
handicapped etc), there is still not much hope for a recovery. Reason being these
are niche market (small in size) and the memory of 1991 golf bubble is still
fresh.
3.
Accordia 2014 profit halved as compared to
profit from 4 years ago.
4.
Accordia
owns 135 golf courses of which 89 courses will be sold to AGT.
·
If
golf courses business is expected to benefit from aging population, as claimed
in the prospectus, why Accordia chose to sell 2/3 of its business?
·
The
price paid for this 2/3 of Accordia's
business is only SGD 782 Mil or 46% of Accordia's market capitalization. It is
either this 89 golf courses are mainly made up of worthless lands (ie.
inconvenient location) or they are sold at a large discount due to unfavorable
prospect.
5.
Accordia
was once a failing company and owned by Goldman sach, who dumped it in
2011. Goldman sach can't see any more upside to this business.
6.
Lands
in Japan, which are currently occupied mainly by agricultures, will worth much
lesser after economic reform and opening up to world trade. Thus capital
injected into AGT is expected to depreciate rather than appreciate.
7.
AGT
profit and cashflows are in JPY while the REIT payouts are in SGD, this will
lead to a foreign exchange risk. For your information (refer to the following
chart), JPY has depreciated by about 25% (or 5% per year) against SGD for the
past 5 years. This mean that the actual yield from AGT won't be the promised
6.8% -7%. In fact the real yield will decrease by 5% each year. We can assume
this trend to continue as PM Abe tries to stimulate Japan ailing economy and
boost export.
8.
The
reason, claimed by Accordia, for selling and leasing back its 89 golf courses
is to be asset light. However Japan is currently in a low interest rate
environment which should encourage businesses to own more rather than less
asset. Why would Accordia go against the trend?
·
Thefinance.sg
observed that since 2013, Accordia has increased its dividend payout by 4 times
to 55 yen per share. This is even more than its net income per share of 45 yen
per share. (REFER TO http://thefinance.sg/2014/06/30/accordia-golf-trust-6-8-to-7-distribution-yield/)
·
My
own deduction from the information above=>
o
The
deal was meant to help Accordia's shareholder to cash out and exit the business
by obtaining cash upfront which is then paid to Accordia's shareholders as fat
dividends. Obviously, subscribers of AGT become the scapegoats.
9.
AGT
is totally undiversified: Golf courses are the only asset of AGT and all the
golf courses are located in Japan. Meanwhile AGT's main customer, Accordia, is
highly leveraged at 65% of total asset. In short AGT is a very risky asset
which defy the stable and conservative nature of most REITs we see in
Singapore.
10. Despite exposing its investor to
significantly higher risk, unfortunately AGT does not offer higher return. For example, Keppel Reit offers a slightly
lower 6.6% yield but
a.
Its
properties are well diversified in both Singapore and Melbourne
b.
Its
office towers are rented to a diverse customer base
c.
Much
lower leverage: Debt stands at only 42% of total asset.
Valuation
Model: DCF r
= 4.817% g = -5% CF
(perpetuity): 6.8cents
Optimistic Price: $ 0.693 Pessimistic Target Price: $0.554***
Call: Short
Upon Opening Target
price = $0.623
Return from subscribing to IPO ( @
$0.97) = -28.6% to - 42.8%
***$0.693 is considered
an optimistic valuation. One likely factor which might threaten this TP is the
pending hike in Singapore's interest rate which would cause AGT's risk/reward
ratio to be much less attractive- since AGT's value mainly comes from its yield
as it has negative growth. For this reason, I personally think it is prudent to
discount the TP by another 20% and the lower end of the value would be $0.554
Conclusion
All in all,
AGT is a REIT involved in a troubled industry and promised yields that are
unlikely to materialise. Furthermore, it
exposed subscribers to huge amount of risk but fails to offer a fair return.
What it does offer is an exposure to a new and interesting class of asset known
as golf course. Instead of losing their mind to the excited generated from
owning a new class of asset, savvy investors should pay more attention to how
AGT add value to their portfolio.
As an ending joke: If AGT were to successfully float after IPO, I might
consider listing dustbins and toilet bowls as REIT next.